War with Saddam Hussein could mean job losses for Oxfordshire, a new report warns.

The report, from the economic consultancy Experian Business Strategies, estimates that a short conflict in the first quarter, confined to Iraq and not involving other Middle East countries, could cost the UK 230,000 jobs next year.

Experian Business Strategies associate director Richard Yorke said: "Oxfordshire could not expect to escape unscathed."

The report estimates the rise in the price of oil caused by a war, and works out how this would lead to higher costs, causing a cutback in spending and investment plans.

The job losses following a war with Iraq were calculated from a "worst-case" scenario, and are made up of a mix of redundancies and lack of new jobs being created. Unemployment in Oxfordshire is one per cent -- well below the national average -- and is not expected to change significantly when the jobless figures are released on November 13.

Experian estimates that even without military action, economic growth in Oxfordshire will fall to 3.1 per cent a year, compared to an average of 5.5 per cent in the four years up to 2001.

The report says that although growth in Oxfordshire will slow over the next four years, the county will still be growing at a rate well ahead of the national average.

Mr Yorke said: "The slower rate of growth reflects the world-wide slowdown which has hit all types of firms in the county, and indeed across the whole of the UK.

"Oxfordshire is still doing well. Its growth is slowing to a healthy and more sustainable pace."