THE recession and an upsurge in crime will leave Oxfordshire’s police resources and budget overstretched, according to a top-level report.

The internal report to Thames Valley Police Authority revealed it has not budgeted to cope with an increase in demand for police officers as crime rates creep up during the recession – and may have to dip into emergency financial reserves.

But although it is forecast that the force may make cuts over the next 12 months because of the strain, top officers pledged to continue with initiatives such as visiting every crime victim.

In the past year burglary, regarded as a recession crime indicator, has increased in Oxfordshire by five per cent and is up 15 per cent in Oxford.

Oxford police commander Supt Andy Murray said: “The police service is under no illusion that we are operating in a climate of financial austerity.

“That’s why we have to find efficiencies that will maintain or even improve our service.

“I appreciate that historically crime has increased in a recession but it seems to me rather defeatist to accept this as inevitable.

“We will continue to treat burglary and car crime as a priority but also deliver on some of the more local neighbourhood issues.”

Projects including the Policing Pledge, which includes targets for officer attendance and a scheme for officers to visit every victim of crime, will continue.

The Revenue Monitoring report sent to the Thames Valley Police Authority said there would be negative and positive impacts caused by a recession.

It said: “It should also be noted that history shows, in times of recession, demands on police services increase.

“There is a likelihood that as job losses and financial pressures increase, so will public disorder and crime, for example burglary.

“No specific provision is made for this within the budget although many of our budgets are demand-driven and could find themselves stretched over the short to medium term.”

The UK has officially been in recession since January after the economy shrank for two successive quarters.

Thames Valley Police Authority treasurer Bob Atkins said: “There are no specific provisions set aside for crime increases resulting from the recession, because we do not yet know what the exact effects of an economic downturn could be, and we wouldn’t want to raise the police part of the council tax precept without knowing exactly what we would need to pay for.

“The report really serves to alert members that as we go through the year we could be facing more pressures in terms of increasing crime than in previous years.

“If this turns out to be the case, we want members to be aware of the possibility and the potential need to dip into the police authority reserves in the short term. Currently, the reserves are in a healthy state and we have no reason to think that there would be a problem.”

mwilkinson@oxfordmail.co.uk