The Conservatives,John Smith
told his party conference in Dundee this weekend, are now ''kept going
only by their desire to stay in office''. The following day Shadow
Scottish Secretary George Robertson declared to delegates: ''The Tories
have been rumbled and their time is over.''
Party conferences are in part for leaders to put heart into the
faithful, and in opposition we-are-on-our-way-to-victory-next-time
speeches have to be made.
However, the verdicts delivered by Messrs Smith and Robertson did not
sound much over-the-top given the Government's wretched performance
almost since it won re-election not quite two years ago. More sensitive
Labour supporters may still flinch when they hear ''next time''
speeches.
Hopes may not have been particularly high in 1983 but in 1987 Labour
seemed in with a chance and in 1992 they had to be favourites to win.
But Labour MPs have not just the polls to comfort them now. At
Westminster they daily see a troubled and uncertain Conservative
parliamentary party brooding over a troubled and uncertain Government.
Three years, though, is a very long time in politics. Mr Major, should
he survive, will hang on in the hope of his luck turning. Any successor
will need time to try to create a new image for his party. But Labour
has good grounds for hoping that, with the Tories failing on previously
strong policies such as taxation and law and order, with a clutch of
other policies going wrong and a general air of not knowing what they're
doing, the voters may indeed decide it is time for a change when they
are offered the opportunity.
The Dundee conference, briefly illuminated by a good speech from Mr
Robertson and bright, briefer contributions from one or two others, was
in general as stolid as Mr Smith's address. On the Saturday the national
executive spokesmen gave notice that they are still worried about the
leadership's approach to taxation and obtaining economic growth. The
conference even pushed through a resolution which went much further in
terms of government intervention and public ownership than Mr Smith and
Mr Brown feel like going.
Speakers sought to pin down the future government on preserving
universal welfare benefits with an independent review board to ensure
adequate upratings. There was more than one call to kill VAT on fuel by
zero rating it even if this meant defying European Union rules. Another
speaker said: ''We are going to have to invest a lot of money to
encourage people to go for public transport.'' One optimist even wanted
the next Labour Government to revive the shipping, coal, and steel
industries.
I mention these and could mention more to make the point that whatever
sea change four election defeats have made on the ideas of the party
leadership many of the party activists still believe that at the end of
the day it is up to the Government to put things right.
Mr Brown could end up as a latter-day Philip Snowden if the cautious
and orthodox fiscal and economic approach he and Mr Smith favour does
not deliver some goods. Hypothecating an extra 1p on income tax for the
NHS and perhaps 1p for education or something else might be the tax
answer if the leadership believes closer to election day that it can
take the risk.
The business plan for the economy needs to be fleshed out if it is not
to be seen simply as Labour joining the present Government in admitting
that it dare not tax to the level needed to provide services the public
needs or demands.
The Opposition is, however, showing signs of sensibly preparing for
government by initiating studies to work out what it should do when the
great day comes, such as those announced for dealing with local
governments and quangos in Scotland. Across the government departments
this needs to be done, for a Labour Government needs to hit the ground
running and must have as detailed plans as possible to work on from day
one.
Labour's economic dilemma was well expressed at the conference by Alex
Falconer, MEP for mid Scotland and Fife, though he did not express it as
a dilemma. Britain could not, he said, undercut the person in the
Philippines who was even now working hi-tech equipment for a hi-tech
industry for about #100 a month. Britain needed a social economy, he
said. Time did not permit him to indicate of what this would consist and
how it would finance the considerably increased leisure time that he
regarded as desirable.
But the dilemma is real enough. Mr Smith declared that his aim is a
high-wage, high-skills, high-investment, and high-employment economy.
Modern technology, however, appears to be advancing towards requiring a
comparatively few highly skilled persons to design, make, and service
machines and a large number of persons like those in the Philippines
willing to operate them for what seems to us very little money.
Traditional manufacturing looks beyond reviving. Service industries do
not look likely to produce millions of high-wage jobs. What engine runs
the social economy?
Dundee seemed to show Labour less troubled by vulnerability to the
SNP. ''Labour is Scotland's real national party,'' Mr Robertson declared
roundly and the delegates responded as if they believed it. He rightly
criticised the blame-the-English school of nationalism and sensibly
declared: ''The Scottish people can see higher.''
An unexciting conference has left the Labour faithful in good heart
but with several basic questions still to be answered by their leaders.
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