Who will follow the quiet man of power?

Unionist leader James Molyneaux.

But, as Russell Edmonds explains,

they may be motivated more

by leadership ambitions than loyalty

BEHIND the struggle to keep Northern Ireland's peace process on the

rails, another political battle is hotting up. In both cases, it could

be said that James Molyneaux, now in his 75th year, is a key player.

On the plane from London to Belfast, he looks a somewhat insignificant

figure, his head buried in a gardening magazine as it was one evening

last week. Molyneaux is probably the most low-profile political leader

in the UK, a man who shirks media attention and is noted for his reserve

and simple tastes.

But without his support, Prime Minister John Major might not survive

and the Northern Ireland peace process could falter. Wielding such

apparent power as he does so quietly, it should come as no surprise that

several of Molyneaux's lieutenants now appear increasingly envious of

his role and restless to take over from him.

The next few weeks are likely to be the most important of his

political career as the British and Irish governments prepare to launch

their framework document with its controversial plans for new

all-Ireland institutions.

As if that were not enough, the Ulster Unionist leader faces a

personal challenge. While no-one openly opposes him, the prospects of

change at the top of the Unionist Party now looms large. Even before the

recent controversy surrounding leaks to the Times newspaper on the plans

for Ulster, Molyneaux's future was in question.

Though he has said nothing publicly, his fellow MPs at Westminster

have become convinced that he would stand down from office sometime in

1995, thus ending a political reign as leader which began in 1979. Now,

as the deadline for the British-Irish proposals nears, the pressures

grow on Molyneaux and on those who are now vying to take his place.

The prize for them is the leadership of a party which holds the

balance of power at Westminster and, thus, may determine whether the

Conservative Government remains in office for its full term. More

parochially, the Ulster Unionist Party has by far the largest support in

Northern Ireland and, without its backing, it seems no future settlement

in Ireland can be obtained.

Furthermore, if a new settlement is agreed, power will move from

London to Belfast where a Northern Ireland Assembly will be established,

in which the Unionists would be the largest block, and probably provide

the leader.

Not since the 1920s have the stakes been so high in Ireland with a

focus of attention that stretches from London, Dublin and Brussels to

the White House, where President Clinton is preparing to host a special

conference on Ulster later this year.

Molyneaux has been unassailable until recently when it emerged that

his influential relationship with John Major was turning cold. The

Unionist leader, who is a Privy Counsellor, had enjoyed the ear of Mr

Major over the past two years and, particularly, during the period when

the British Prime Minister and his Irish counterpart, Albert Reynolds,

produced the Downing Street peace declaration in December 1993.

At home in Ulster, Molyneaux's supporters believed his influence was

such that no deal could be struck between London and Dublin without his

backing. But the leaks have suggested otherwise, and Molyneaux himself

admits that he has been somewhat cold-shouldered by Downing Street in

recent weeks.

If that is the case then the ageing leader's demise could well be

hastened. He faces re-election at the annual meeting of the Ulster

Unionists' Council on March 18 and, though this is a formality, the

prospect of him deciding to bow out gracefully or of a stalking-horse

candidate emerging to challenge him cannot be ruled out.

Whatever happens, other MPs in his party are already queuing up to

take over, quietly jousting for pole position in the expectation that

this will be his last year in office.

At least five of the nine-strong Ulster Unionist group at Westminster

could be in the running. They range from the dour rural character of

William Ross, the party's chief whip, to the more outspoken John Taylor,

who still bears the facial scars from being shot by an IRA attacker in

1972 when he was a minister in the Stormont government at that time.

The leader of the Orange Order, the Rev Martin Smyth, says he will

stand if and when Molyneaux steps down, while other strong candidates

include Ken Maginnis, the party's spokesman on security, and David

Trimble, a former university law lecturer who has made a name as an

articulate performer on television.

All are Members of Parliament and, while it is not beyond the bounds

of possibility that the party could choose someone from outside

Westminster, this seems very impractical given that the political power

base remains in London, for the moment anyway.

Since none of the candidates has openly declared himself, it is

difficult to pick a favourite, but the front-runners at the moment

appear to be William Ross and John Taylor.

Ross has just celebrated his 59th birthday, he owns a farm at

Dungiven, County Londonderry, and has been an MP for the area since

1974. He appears, like Molyneaux, to be a man of few public words,

unimpressive with the media but very active behind the scenes.

Unlike some of the other candidates, he does not deviate from the

mainstream party line but was among the most sceptical about the Downing

Street peace deal and a regular critic of the Irish Government's

involvement in Northern Ireland.

In 1988 he opposed power sharing, claiming it would give Nationalists

a built-in veto, and is on record as saying that Dublin could never have

a say in the government of Northern Ireland.

John Taylor, aged 57, is the party's most high-profile MP. He has been

in Ulster politics since his university days and was the youngest

Unionist to be elected to the old Stormont Parliament. Unlike Ross, he's

rarely out of the news of the local television screens, his speeches

often addressing controversial issues and, sometimes, drawing

considerable anger from Nationalists.

In 1972 the official IRA tried to assassinate him in his home town of

Armagh. He was seriously wounded in the face and chest and had to

undergo extensive surgery, but that has not deterred him from following

a political career. At one point he angered the Irish authorities by

claiming that Loyalist violence would eventually reach Dublin, and he

has also said that, in the event of a united Ireland, he anticipates an

exodus of Protestants.

Recently Taylor said that anyone considering challenging Molyneaux

should be ''politically knee-capped'' but he is clearly one of the

leading contenders when the leader resigns.

Of the others, David Trimble is seen as a tough Unionist advocate but

may not be long enough in the party to win the top role this time. He

qualified as a barrister and later became a senior lecturer in law and

Dean of the Faculty at Queen's University in Belfast, before becoming MP

for Upper Bann in 1990.

Aged 50, Trimble has been heavily critical of the Irish Government's

links with the peace process and their attempts to persuade the IRA with

what he sees as unacceptable political concessions. He is on record as

saying that it was wrong to be ''publicly negotiating with terrorists''.

Ken Maginnis, 56, the MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, is a former

teacher and speaks on security matters for the Ulster Unionists. The

Enniskillen Remembrance Day bombing took place in his constituency and

he is noted for his strong opposition to terrorism.

He was critical of President Clinton's decision to issue a visa to the

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams and appeared on television in the US in a

debate with Adams. He has been demanding that the IRA hand over its

weapons before Sinn Fein can be involved in political talks.

Finally, the Rev Martin Smyth, Grand Master of the Orange Order in

Ireland, was originally a Presbyterian minister. He resigned his church

ministry to become MP for South Belfast in 1982 in a by-election caused

by the assassination of the Rev Robert Bradford.

Smyth would have enormous support from within the Orange Order, which

he leads during the summer months in a number of major parades and

demonstrations. However, the Unionist Party is attempting to shed any

sectarian image and it may be that the appointment of such a

high-profile Orange leader would not be acceptable in some quarters.

Aged 64, Smyth is seen as another traditionalist, a factor in his

favour among the grassroots Unionists who will be called on to choose a

new leader.

At the moment Ross appears the favourite even if the prospect of

having him as leader finds little enthusiasm in either Dublin or London.

But whoever is chosen is hardly likely to deviate from the position

adopted by Molyneaux over so many years.

From the speeches and profiles of the main contenders for his job, it

is evident that none of them is likely to break the solid political

mould of Ulster Unionism, which James Molyneaux has set firmly since

1979.