IN the lead-up to Oxford United’s defeat at home to Leyton Orient, head coach Des Buckingham stated that 75 points could be enough to make the Sky Bet League One play-offs this season.

But how likely is it that the U’s will hit that mark?

The loss to Orient means United still need 18 points, now from 11 matches, to reach 75 points.

That equates to an average of 1.6 points per game between now and the end of the season.

In their previous 11 fixtures, the U’s have picked up 14 points, so by Buckingham’s forecast, their needs to be a boost in form.

With five draws in their last seven, it’s those single points which need to be converted into wins.

READ AGAIN: Des Buckingham outlines how many points he thinks are needed to finish in play-offs

However, the next three games don’t exactly look straightforward.

A trip to League One leaders Portsmouth on Saturday is followed by welcoming a resurgent Cheltenham Town the following weekend.

The Robins had won three and drawn one prior to last night’s 2-0 defeat at Wycombe Wanderers.

Darrell Clarke is also squeezing the best out of former United striker Matty Taylor, who has bagged four goals in six appearances since joining in January.

After the Robins, it’s a trip to third-place Bolton Wanderers, so hardly an ideal set of fixtures.

Visits to Port Vale and Shrewsbury Town, both struggling and at the wrong end of the table, must garner six points if the U’s are serious about the play-offs, while the home game against Lincoln City sandwiched between them should be an intriguing one. More on the Imps later.

And it’s also worth bearing in mind that the Lincoln game falls during the final international break of the season, so there’s a probability it will be called off and rearranged.

Then it’s the April run-in. Fleetwood Town at the Kassam Stadium, and Burton Albion away are matches which on paper, should be ticked off with wins for United, before things then get tricky again.

Peterborough United and Stevenage, both play-off rivals for the U’s, come to Grenoble Road on back-to-back weekends.

Hopefully by then, a worrying trend will have been dealt with, as United have taken the lead in five of their last seven home games, but have gone on to draw three and lose two of those five matches.

The visit to Exeter City on the final day isn’t likely to present a huge challenge, with the Grecians potentially resting in mid-table safety by the time the game comes around.

So, if the U’s are to find 18 points (or six wins), then the fixtures against Port Vale, Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Burton and Exeter will hopefully provide five of them.

A handful of other positive results, certainly against Peterborough and Stevenage, could then be enough to land a top six spot.

READ ALSO: Oxford United drop out of play-off places after Stevenage win

For further analysis of how things are looking for United, we got the thoughts of former Oxford Mail sports reporter James Roberts. Here’s what he said.

AFTER the 2-0 defeat at Wigan Athletic in late October, I posted on X that United only needed to win 14 of their remaining 33 games to reach the play-offs.

If you had said then that the U’s would only take maximum points from seven of the next 22 matches, few fans would have believed you. But here we are.

The bad news is that United may need seven more wins from their final 11 games as I think the team in sixth will end up with a points tally in the high 70s. For the purpose of this article, let’s say 78 is the benchmark.

That would mean United needing 21 points from 11 games. Their past 11 matches yielded 14 points, so clearly a major improvement is needed.

I expect fifth-placed Peterborough to consolidate a play-off spot despite their recent poor run, while everyone from Lincoln in 10th probably has too much ground to make up.

The Imps have taken 19 points from their past nine games but with 11 matches left and only 51 points on the board, they would have to maintain that for the rest of the season to even get into the low 70s.

So that leaves Stevenage, United, Orient and Blackpool fighting for the final play-off spot.

Oxford Mail:

Eye-catching wins against Peterborough and Bolton suggested ninth-place Blackpool could make a late play-off charge, just as they did under Neil Critchley in 2020/21.

You wonder if that experience could benefit them this time, although even two points per game would only put them on 75.

Orient need 24 points from their final 11 games to reach 78 points. A tall order, but they have taken 25 from the past 11. Having beaten Portsmouth, Bolton, Blackpool and, of course, United in that run – as well as being minutes away from beating Barnsley – they top the form table over the past 10 matches.

It is unlikely that even one of Orient and Blackpool will reach the high 70s, let alone both. But it is well within reach for sixth-place Stevenage.

Steve Evans’ side took just one point from four matches earlier this month but United failed to capitalise. They have since ground out successive 1-0 wins and only need 19 points from their final 12 matches to reach 78.

You would not bet against them eking out a few more tight victories to get over the line.

And what of United? Their underwhelming form under Buckingham has seen some fans throw in the towel already, but leave the Oxfordshire bubble and any neutral would say the U’s still have a chance.

Under Buckingham, United have a good record against teams currently in the bottom half (W5 D3 L1). Six of their final 11 matches are against sides now 15th or below so they need a healthy points tally from those games.

However, it could all rest on the visit of Stevenage on the penultimate Saturday of the season. If United are still in touch with the top six by then, that game against a play-off rival will surely be win or bust.