OXFORD United sit two points above the Sky Bet League One relegation zone – but how many points will be enough for survival this season?
Currently on 40 points, the U’s are teetering on the edge of the bottom four, with Accrington Stanley the side below United and in the danger zone.
The two sides meet each other at the Kassam Stadium on the final day of the season in what is set to be a titanic battle for survival.
READ AGAIN: Oxford United boss will not ‘waste energy’ on points target for U’s
U’s head coach Liam Manning has said he won’t be wasting energy on a specific points target for his side, and will instead be focusing on making sure his players are ready for each game between now and the end of the season.
Earlier this month, he said: “I’ve a rough idea I think but I don’t waste energy on that to be totally honest.
“The biggest thing is we need to pick up points.
“All my energy and the sleepless nights go into giving the players everything, in terms of game prep and psychologically getting them in the right place, and getting the team spirit in a good place.
“You only look at other results in the division, if you try and bank on certain games, you’re going to be in trouble.
“For me, it’s what do we need to do to make sure we can hopefully pick up points.”
We took a look at the number of points obtained by the teams that finished 20th in the third tier over recent years, to try and work out how many United might need between now and the end of the campaign.
Got my crystal ball out and had a crack at predicting the results for the run-ins of the teams in the League One relegation battle, and where that would lead #oufc https://t.co/VxLcYJxOt7
— Liam Rice (@OxMailLiamRice) April 12, 2023
Excluding the 2019/20 season, which was cut short due to Covid-19, this is the number of points the club that finished just above the relegation zone achieved.
• 2021/22: Fleetwood Town (40)
• 2020/21: Wigan Athletic (48)
• 2018/19: AFC Wimbledon (50)
• 2017/18: Rochdale (51)
• 2016/17: Gillingham (50)
• 2015/16: Shrewsbury Town (50)
• 2014/15: Crewe Alexandra (52)
• 2013/14: Notts County (50)
• 2012/13: Colchester United (51)
• 2011/12: Leyton Orient (50)
Fleetwood and AFC Wimbledon both stayed up on goal difference during the years they maintained their spot in League One.
From the above 10 seasons, the mean average of points required to stay up is 49.
United are nine points away from that target with six games still to play.
That means winning half of their remaining games could potentially secure their League One status for next season.
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About the author
To sign up to Liam’s latest Oxford United newsletter for free, click here: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/newsletters/
Formerly the politics reporter for the Oxford Mail, Liam now covers all things Oxford United.
Liam attends the U’s home and away, as well as covering other big sports stories across the county.
His Oxford United newsletter is released every Saturday morning at 6am.
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