Council tax bills could jump by as much as £200, the leader of Oxfordshire County Council has warned.

Councils and Thames Valley Police have told residents to prepare for a big increase because of Government plans to switch money away from the south-east of England to the north.

The forecast came from the leader of the county council, Keith Mitchell, as both authorities prepared to draw up their 2003-4 budgets.

He said: "I'm alarmed. It feels like there's some sort of deal this Government has struck with their backbenchers and they're moving money to all their areas in the North East and North West."

A report to be presented to Thames Valley Police Authority's strategy, finance and planning committee on Friday (November 1) reveals that if the force receives the same amount of money from the Government as in 2002-03, its share of an average band D council tax could have to increase by 40 per cent -- or £29 -- to meet inflation and spending commitments.

If the authority follows its draft £288m budget for next year it could have to raise its share of the tax by almost 50 per cent, or £36.

Last month, county council finance managers said its share of taxpayers' bills could go up by 17 per cent for band D properties, if, in a worst-case scenario, the council loses out on £43m of funding from the Government.

Mr Mitchell said he thought the county council's share of the bill could rise by £130, with district councils and police each asking for at least an extra £30 -- amounting to a total increase of about £200.

He said councils and the police were struggling to find staff because of the cost of living and house prices in Oxfordshire.

Chief Constable Peter Neyroud said: "Thames Valley Police is significantly under-resourced.

"It has the lowest spending per head of population, the lowest number of officers per 1,000 population, and significantly below-average staffing levels.

"Although the precise level of Government funding has yet to be announced, it's already clear that the police authority will be faced with considering a significant rise in council tax just to stand still."

Thames Valley has 1.8 police officers per 1,000 residents in its area, compared with a national average of 2.5 officers per 1,000.

Howard Springthorpe, clerk and treasurer to the police authority, said: "The whole outlook for the police service, not just in Thames Valley, is more serious and worrying than it has been for four or five years."

The force says it has no intention of axing officers and the funding shortfall may be made up by an increase in council tax, cuts or a combination of the two.

It has a three-year programme to increase its number of officers by 325, which it intends to stick to.

It has launched a major recruitment drive because of a crisis in the number of officers leaving for other areas where the lost of living is less.

Insp Martin Elliott, chairman of the Thames Valley Police Federation, the police union, feared financial pressures could lead to cuts in recruitment, and criticised the Government. He said: "It's all about securing votes in Labour strong-holds in the next General Election."

The Government says it is keen to ensure changes in funding do not leave any police service worse off than in the last year. The amount Thames Valley receives is expected to be announced in December.