Rugby writer MICHAEL KNOX previews today's 122nd Varsity Match and predicts a win for the Dark Blues

SO many times in recent years Oxford have arrived at Twickenham as favourites to beat Cambridge, only to come up short on the big day.

Somehow the Light Blues seemed to rise to the occasion, under their wily coach Tony Rodgers, and return to Cambridge with the spoils.

The same was true last year, when Oxford, seeking their fourth win in a row, were edged out 15-13, despite having much the better of the game.

Now, with what director of rugby Steve Hill describes as his strongest squad of 22 in the last five seasons, the Dark Blues appear to hold most of the aces.

While Cambridge's build-up has been disrupted by injury - last year's two-try hero Simon Frost is one of several ruled out of this historic fixture - Oxford have steadily improved, culminating in five wins in a row.

Their pack looks far too strong for Cambridge. They have same front row as last season, with the additional World Cup experience that an ultra-fit Kevin Tkachuk gained by playing for Canada in the recent World Cup.

Arguably Oxford's outstanding player this term has been the Australian Dave Lubans, who played No 8 last year, but switches to the second row, where his pace around the field has set up several tries.

But it is the back row where they have looked especially strong, and well balalnced.

Tom Hayman is a powerhouse at No 8, no-one has bested No 7 Richie Woods this season, while Peter Raftery gets the nod over old Blue Ben Durham on the other flank.

The Oxford scrum has held its own against all the club sides this year, but the backs have often not fulfilled their undouted potential.

The one advantage Cambridge appear to hold is at fly half, where Welshman Daffyd Lewis is a most accomplished player and goalkicker - and we all know how that can win games!

In contrast, Irishman Jon Fennell is still growing into the job, having taken over from the injured Matt Honeyben.

Fennell's kicking out of hand is still a weakness, on which Cambridge will hope to capitalise.

For that reason, Oxford are likely to play a fast, mobile game with the ball in hand, and make the most of their pace on the wings and at full back.

Provided they keep their discipline, the Dark Blues should not need a last-minute drop goal to seal victory.

And their Australian captain John Allen would gain compensation for his country's World Cup final defeat, by lifting the MMC Trophy in front of the expected 50,000 plus crowd.