HUMAN-CAUSED climate change made last week’s record-breaking heatwave at least 10 times more likely, according to scientists.
Last week Oxfordshire sweltered through its hottest ever day as temperature records were melted by the heatwave.
Temperatures reached 38.4C at RAF Benson, near Wallingford, at 2pm on Tuesday – beating the previous record for the county, 36.5C recorded by the Met Office in 2019.
The mercury soared around the county with a temperature of 36.8C at RAF Brize Norton – an increase from 36.1C recorded at both air bases on the previous day.
At the University of Oxford’s Radcliffe Observatory – the UK’s longest-running weather station – at Green Templeton College, off Woodstock Road, the temperature at 10am on Monday was 36.7 degrees, already breaking the previous record.
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Scientists warned that these extreme temperatures were higher than climate models predict – suggesting the consequences of climate change for heatwaves could be even worse than previously thought.
The 10-fold increase in the chances of such extreme heat in the UK as a result of climate change is a conservative estimate, the researchers from the World Weather Attribution initiative said.
And while the searing heat, which saw temperatures peak above 40C for the first time in the UK, is still a very rare occurrence in today’s climate, it would be “almost impossible” without global warming.
Mariam Zachariah, from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, said: “Even with a conservative estimate, we see a large role of climate change in the UK heatwave.
“Under our current climate that has been altered by greenhouse gas emissions, many people are experiencing events during their lifetime that would have been almost impossible otherwise.”
The study looked at the annual maximum temperatures over two days across the region of England and east Wales which had the Met Office’s first ever red alert warning for extreme heat issued for July 18-19.
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It also examined the change in frequency and intensity of the maximum daily temperature seen at three locations: London’s St James’s Park, Cranwell in Lincolnshire which is close to Coningsby, and Durham, where temperatures broke their previous record high by 4C.
Researchers used computer modelling to compare the likelihood of the temperatures seen in the 2022 heatwave under the current climate and in a world without the 1.2C of global warming seen since the 19th century.
The modelling suggests climate change, driven by more heat-trapping greenhouse gases put into the atmosphere by human activity, had made a heatwave as intense as the UK’s at least 10 times more likely and probably even more – though still only likely to happen once in 100 years.
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This story was written by Anna Colivicchi, she joined the team this year and covers health stories for the Oxfordshire papers.
Get in touch with her by emailing: Anna.colivicchi@newsquest.co.uk
Follow her on Twitter @AnnaColivicchi
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