Opinion: Why Covid has changed Oxfordshire forever

With over 120,000 deaths nationally and our local Oxford hospitals at breaking point it may seem premature to look at the long term impact the pandemic will have on Oxfordshire.

But hope is on the horizon. With the recently developed vaccines, and with luck, as cases are now falling, we may return to something like normality by the summer.

Some of the social changes are already coming into focus and it is becoming increasingly clear what the new normal may look like.

Certain movements that were already happening before the lockdowns have been accelerated by the pandemic. Other changes to the character of Oxfordshire are new but likely to stay with us in the future because of our year long experience.

The nature of the High Street has changed significantly as a result of the virus.

Already weak companies such as Debenhams have gone to the wall, the loss in revenue simply too much.

In Oxford and every satellite town the victims are there to see. Many well known and loved names will not reopen when the lockdown is lifted.

The major impact will actually be on new smaller enterprises where profit margins are thin and reserves non existent. Vacant shop fronts will be with us for years while awaiting new tenants.

David Williams

Our shopping habits have been fundamentally changed during the lockdown periods.

Now throughout Oxfordshire we have hundreds of delivery vans dropping off purchases made online. The trend to internet sales started 10 years ago but 2020 saw dramatic increase as we found a safe way to shop at a distance.

The High Streets will now never be the same again and there is even speculation - if there is any future for shopping malls and the traditional retail High Street itself.

As for jobs it is still very difficult to identify if a company will have closed because of Brexit or Covid. No doubt when companies are no longer propped up by government grants we will know which force has killed which victims.

Whichever it is, we already know there will be some numerous casualties.

In the short term the damage is more likely to come from the virus but in the longer term Brexit is more likely to be the core of the damage.

The big change that will sustain is working from home. We like going to work collectively because we are naturally gregarious creatures but employers have worked out cunning ways to make working from home effective and productive.

Although its only 7 per cent of the population and many of those will return to their offices when the nightmare ends some will carry on in this new way of working. That will have a ripple effect on our public transport systems and our business parks already hard hit by the virus.

The internet truly came of age during the pandemic in so many ways. Oxfordshire organisations took to holding their meetings via Zoom.

Schoolchildren came to rely on-line home education packages. Higher education students had distance learning systems rather than lectures. Home entertainment systems be they Netflix or social media outlets such as Facebook grew dramatically with a massive spike in subscriptions.

Schools will come back and lectures will return to Universities because personal contact is more humane, quicker and more effective than electronic systems but the lasting legacy will be that our learning centres will digitalise even more of their activities in an all-consuming cyber world.

The saddest impact of the virus has been on the arts. The theatres, cinemas, museums and galleries are all closed. The traditional venues involved meeting together in close personal contact something that is outlawed on public safety grounds by the virus.

Annual musical and literary events have been cancelled. The unthinkable has happened, Oxford that world famous cultural hub is still and void.

Shoppers in quiet Oxford

The creative heartland has had very little support from Government and the damage to outlets and on the lives of people in the creative community will take at least a decade to recover.

Coming soon will be the announcements that a number of our best loved Oxfordshire venues will not be continuing. We seem to have got into the habit of stay-at-home entertainment and once established the British are terrible creatures of habit. Although business may well will bounce back sharply the damage to the arts will take many years to recover

Thousands of people in Oxfordshire will have died as a result of coronavirus but twenty times that number caught the virus and have sustained damaging health issues which will stay with them for the rest of their lives. For the NHS the last coronavirus death will not be the end of the health care that will be needed for victims. It may be resisted by certain politicians, but we will need to radically reconsider the value of those who have saved this nation working in the NHS, the care and emergency services and reward them accordingly.

The great untold story has been the damage to our civic society. Numerous community organisations have dissolved never to rise again. Charities with the closure of their good as new shops and dwindling donations are on the brink of bankruptcy. Oxfordshire is generous and resilient and gradually they will bounce back but not immediately. It will take time, perhaps years for them to recover.

Religious organisations already in slow decline will no doubt have been deeply damaged by the pandemic, gathering for prayer being banned under the lockdown regulations. Congregations will return but people have had a year without the vital socialisation of fellow worshippers and a dramatic drop in numbers will be expected. The 2021 census will no doubt reveal that Oxfordshire has moved significantly towards a more secular society.

The number of foreign holidays taken by Oxfordshire folk dropped dramatically over the last twelve months. No doubt as we return to normal both within Britain and abroad this will come back quite quickly. However during the summer of 2020 after the first lockdown stay at home holidays in the UK became very popular and we seemed to appreciate how beautiful our own country can be. Having enjoyed local beauty spots that trend toward UK breaks could sustain. Airline companies think it will take five years to get back to levels seen in 2019.

Politically the virus could see a shift in local politics in Oxfordshire reflected in the local elections due to take place in May. Criticism of the Conservative Government handling of the epidemic will be reflected in that vote. Always being behind the curve of events, confusion over messaging, delays in PPE and testing and accusations of incompetence and even corruption in Covid contracting could spell trouble for local Tories. The County Council could lose its Conservative control and any likelihood of the Conservatives winning more seats on district and City councils looks remote. The changed in voting habits and the political legacy will last for years to come.

A closed sign at Christ Church in Oxford.

We think of coronavirus impacts as always being negative but it could also have some beneficial aspect especially to Oxford.

Oxford with its four major teaching hospitals has always been one of the UK's leading centres for developing clinical good practice. Over the last 12 months the survival rate of those with the virus has been better in Oxford than most other areas. Many valuable lessons on stopping cross infections within hospitals and enhancing operational excellence have been learnt. These will remain long after the present virus has been beaten.

Oxford’s reputation as one of the world’s great innovation and leading edge research hubs has been enhanced by the development and application of the Covid-19 vaccine. The practical reality of saving literally millions of lives globally using the Oxford University AstraZeneca jab will mean Governments and private concerns will look to Oxford for research investment, not just in pharmaceuticals but in a wide range of research projects. Internationally the name of Oxford as the great centre of learning is held up high and we can expect even more students to want to come to Oxford especially for postgraduate research.

For now we must keep social distancing, wear our face masks, have our inoculations and do all we can to stop the spread of the virus; but let us remember Covid-19 not only killed people in Oxfordshire, it changed the character of our county forever.

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