Sir - Oxford planning officials rely upon a forecasted flooding risk of "One in a 100 Years" when recommending approval of applications to develop land in Osney Mead.

The Bodleian proposes to demolish the existing SERS building and erect a warehouse several times larger (20.3m. high, 81m. frontage, 97m. deep).

The SERS footprint (2,800 sq.m.) would be increased nearly three times to 7600 sq.m. and represent 1.2 acres of extra building, equivalent to 30 or so new townhouses.

This increased footprint will aggravate flooding problems in the future.

Flooding probabilities, without declared statistical foundation, are sometimes reduced to a "One in 200 years event".

Bodleian's London planning advisers "emphasise that the building will be defended in the One in 5000 year event".

The 2005 National Flood Risk Assessment of the Environment Agency (EA) classified this site (OX2 0EW) in the highest risk category - with a "significant" flooding risk of "one in 75 years". Actual records of flooding in this area were reported to the city council in June by W.S. Atkins, an international civil engineering company who identified seven floods in 60 years of which four were severe (1947, 1979, 2000 and 2003).

The July 2007 flood makes a total of eight floods in 60 years and three of the most severe in the last seven years.

Because "The impact of climate change upon flood risk is that the frequency and severity of flooding is likely to increase into the future", Atkins recommend primarily:" Steering development outside of the flood plain".

The proposed warehouse, an excellent automated system (ASRS), designed to meet Bodleian's needs for 16 years, should be located off the Osney Mead flood plain.

Brian Wilson, OU alumnus 1948 and Member Bodley's Circle