IF YOU have the benefit of a vivid imagination you will be able to picture it: George Burley standing in the technical area of some South African stadium, shirt open at the neck, the sweat lashing off him, one of those tournament accreditation passes hanging over his chest, his face a mixture of concentration and pride as the planet watches his team at the 2010 World Cup finals.

Think back to the summer of 1998 and remember what a big deal it is to be at a World Cup. Nothing else mattered that June beyond Scotland being part of the in-crowd at France 98. Apart from a full-scale war, what is there these days than can mobilise most European countries like being at a World Cup? Wall-to-wall newspaper coverage, endless television and radio reporting, every minute consumed by Scotland's participation in the greatest sporting event on earth. What a brilliant, unforgettable firework show it would be in South Africa. Books would be written about it, documentaries made.

OK, snap out of it. We're getting ahead of ourselves.

Some day a manager will take Scotland back to the World Cup finals after far too long in the wilderness, but Burley? Next summer? In his private, candid moments, as deeply off the record as it's possible to get, does even Burley think he will be working in his official SFA clobber in Africa next summer? I doubt it, and this is a manager who yields to no-one when it comes to unquestioning optimism. Burley has been around the block often enough to see his squad for what it is. He might play the role of the smiling, upbeat patriot to the point that it strips away any inclination to say anything remotely negative or challenging about Scotland, but he isn't daft.

The squad he named to take on Norway this Wednesday included players from Cardiff City, Preston, Bristol City, Derby County and Falkirk. With due respect to all of them, these aren't outfits which otherwise are going to be very well represented at this World Cup finals or any other. Yes, yes, of course there is more money in the English Championship now and those handful of clubs can afford better players than they could in the past, but they haven't moved up in the pecking order. They are still second tier. The fact remains that if any English Premier League club thought our lads were good enough they would have lifted them into the big league.

Of the seven squad members who can call themselves English Premier League players, five have just come into it with clubs who have been promoted and face a battle to avoid relegation (Steven Fletcher, Graham Alexander and Steven Caldwell at Burnley, James McFadden at Birmingham and Christophe Berra at Wolves). Alan Hutton is at Tottenham but doesn't seem to be Harry Redknapp's cup of tea. That leaves Darren Fletcher, at Manchester United, as the only Scottish footballer playing an important role at one of the biggest and richest clubs in Europe. Burley simply doesn't have the spread of talent you tend to see from every European finalist at the World Cup.

After a while, a qualification campaign gives off a vibe, you can get a feel for where it might be heading.

This one hasn't been good. Think of all the calamities, setbacks, errors of judgment and embarrassments there have been since the opening game 11 months ago. Lee McCulloch's international retirement leaked out on the eve of a dreary opening defeat in Macedonia. Burley going with the unproven Chris Iwelumo as his striker at home to Norway and being repaid with the mother-and-father of all open-goal misses. Hours later Kris Boyd took the huff at being overlooked and said he wouldn't play for his country again. In March, a curse of this campaign, multiple withdrawals through injury, struck again and a weakened side was routed 3-0 by Holland in Amsterdam. Hours later that night there was the genesis of "boozegate" and Barry Ferguson and Allan McGregor were written out of the story forever.

More bad news: throughout all this Scotland have managed to beat only an Iceland team which has already been knocked out of the tournament, and taken just one point from an available nine from the three other countries in the group. This is what police refer to as putting a case together through "jigsaw evidence". No wonder there are times when Burley has looked haunted in this job.

There is still hope, of course. After Olso there will be only the home double-header in September against Macedonia and Holland. Finishing second remains a real possibility and with the luck of the draw that could mean a two-legged November play off against the likes of Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Switzerland or the Republic of Ireland.

Scotland's traditionally impressive record in Norway is of no consequence - although remaining unbeaten in seven visits to Olso is admirable - but it is significant that the side Burley must overcome this week is far from the best Norway have had over the years. John Carew, John Arne Riise, Morten Gamst Pedersen, Steffen Iversen and Brede Hangeland are familiar names, but Iversen is one of 13 players drawn from a Norwegian domestic scene which is no better than Scotland's. They have won only two of their last 13 fixtures and haven't beaten anyone in five attempts in this qualifying campaign. Manager Egil Olsen - famous for his wellies and his route one football - is back in charge but this isn't the effective, if often scorned, Norway of the 1990s.

Wednesday's result in Oslo will undoubtedly be a pivotal one in this group. It will tell us where Scotland and Burley are heading.