Turkey's 'embargo busters' easing the pressure on Iraq

wavering.

Fuel smuggling across the Turkish border has punched a hole in the

United Nations' embargo on Baghdad while Ankara has shied away from

aiding any further military strike on the Iraqis to enforce UN

resolutions.

Turkey is also keen to re-open an Iraqi oil pipeline through its

territory and start collecting a tidy sum in toll fees again.

Baghdad and Ankara are already discussing how to repair the pipeline,

damaged during the Gulf war, which could re-open if Iraq agrees to UN

terms for renewed oil exports.

Iraq has so far refused to accept the UN's terms allowing it to export

$1.6 billion worth of oil through Turkey to pay for its humanitarian

needs and Gulf war compensation. It says such an agreement would impinge

on its sovereignty.

Turkey, which originally demanded $264m in fees for the $1.6 billion

deal, now says the amount is negotiable.

Meanwhile, more than 500 Turkish lorries take food and medicine into

Iraq every day in trips authorised by the UN. Instead of coming back

empty handed as they should, drivers buy diesel fuel from both Iraqi

officials and Kurdish ''peshmerga'' guerrillas at rock-bottom prices.

They then smuggle it across the border in large tanks specially fitted

to their trucks and sell it in Turkey at five times the price. The huge

profits involved allow the drivers to bribe their way through Customs

posts and guerrilla checkpoints along the route.

An estimated 4.2m gallons of diesel are brought into Turkey this way

every week in blatant violation of the embargo. Despite complaints from

one Turkish petrol company which is suffering heavy losses from the

flood of cheap Iraqi fuel, the Turkish government is turning a blind eye

to the sanctions busting. It says the trade helps Iraq's beleaguered

Kurds and brings much needed cash to Turkey's under developed

south-eastern region.

Similar illicit operations take place at Iraq's borders with Jordan,

Syria and Iran but Turkey, a Nato member and aspirant to EC membership,

has set itself up as a vanguard of the West against Iraq.

The US Air Force used Turkey's Incirlik air base to bomb Saddam's

forces around the clock during the Gulf war. The base is still home to

the allied Poised Hammer force which acts as a deterrent against another

Iraqi offensive on the Kurds.

However, Turkish Prime Minister, Suleyman Demirel, said during the

recent tense stand-off with UN weapons inspectors in Baghdad that he

would not allow the allies to stage a punitive strike against Iraq from

Incirlik as had been suggested.

He called for Iraq to be ''re-integrated into the international

community'' and urged all sides to avoid escalating tensions again.

Demirel was in opposition during the Gulf war and condemned the then

government's strong backing of the allies. He is regarded as less

pro-Western than President Turgut Ozal, who single-handedly guided

Turkish foreign policy throughout the Gulf crisis.

The change in the domestic political scene and the damage to Turkey's

economy caused by the UN sanctions has led Ankara to soften its line

against Baghdad. Iraq was Turkey's second largest trading partner before

the Gulf crisis and supplied it with 60% of its oil. A twin pipeline

that brought oil from the Iraqi city of Mosul to a Turkish Mediterranean

terminal has remained out of action.

The Iraqis paid #150m a year for the right of passage through Turkish

soil and the Turks hope the sanctions will be lifted soon so that

payments can be resumed. A delegation from Turkey's state-owned pipeline

company reportedly made a hush-hush visit to Baghdad this month to

discuss technical difficulties that will arise if and when the pipeline

is opened.

Turkey has vowed not to re-open the pipeline against the UN's wishes,

and besides, Iraq would prefer to use its Mina al-Bakr terminal on the

Persian Gulf to renew oil exports. But the visit marked a definite

improvement in relations with Iraq.

Turkey is soon to become one of the few pro-Western countries to

operate its Baghdad embassy on a full-time basis. Turkish leaders

counter claims that they are getting too cosy with Saddam by saying that

Iraq will not be an international pariah for ever and that it is better

to maintain some kind of contact in the meantime.

While Turkey's rapprochement with its southern neighbour might be a

cause for concern in Western capitals, it is a nightmare scenario for

Iraq's three million Kurds.

Turkey is fervently opposed to the Kurds turning the chunk of Iraqi

territory they hold into a fully sovereign state. Ankara fears that

would encourage its own sizeable Kurdish minority's bid for

independence. Turkey's Kurdish guerrilla group, the PKK, has bases in

Iraqi Kurdistan and frequently launches cross-border raids from there.

The British, French and US war planes that fly over northern Iraq to

protect the Kurds from Saddam do so only with Turkish permission. If

Iraq and Turkey reach an agreement that Kurdistan is not to be, there is

little to stop a repeat of last year's Kurdish tragedy or the Iraqi gas

attacks on Kurdish villages in 1988.