PAY increases of 6.5% for Britain's 140,000 police officers are

expected to be triggered by the release today of the May average

earnings figures, leaving the Government with the dilemma of whether to

sanction its 14th inflation-breaking rise in 15 years.

In fact the situation is even worse than it first appears because

coming on top of last year's 8.5% increase, a 6.5% rise payable from

September under a 14-year-old formula linking their pay to increases in

gross average earnings, would be worth 7.3% for the 1992-3 pay year and

would take their aggregate increases for the past five years to 51%.

Last week, the Cabinet decided to restrict senior civil servants,

Judges and armed forces leaders to a 4% increase this year even though

an independent review body had recommended 19.7%. Ministers have also

been urging pay restraint in the private sector, especially in the

newly-privatised industries, although with little success.

A report published today by the Public Finance Foundation describes

the development of a ''two-tier'' public service developing with police

firmly in the favoured tier. Town hall staff, local government manual

workers, civil servants and now the so-called ''top people'' have or are

expected to be held down to about 4%.

Mr Chris Trinder, the foundation's research director, commented that

police had a rise of 9.25% in 1989 and 9.75% in 1990 when most public

servants had to settle for about 7% each year. Last year, they got 8.5%

when then going rate was 6%.

A 6.5% increase would mean the pay of a top of scale constable going

up from #19,674 to #20,953.