UKretail sales recovered in February - but the rise went nowhere near offsetting January's tumble - official figures showed yesterday.

The numbers from National Statistics prompted economists to predict retail sales could fall in the first quarter of 2006 as a whole, with the big consumer comeback which was evident in the final three months of last year perhaps proving shortlived.

Economists also questioned once again whether the Bank of England was being too optimistic in its UK growth projections - which have the annualised rate of expansion rising above 3per cent later this year - particularly given increasing unemployment.

However, even those economists looking for further cuts in base rates cautioned they were likely to remain on hold for some time, given the Bank's monetary policy committee does not want to provide too great a stimulus to the residential property market through a further reduction.

National Statistics said UK retail sales volumes rose by a seasonally-adjusted 0.5per cent in February - exceeding the average City forecast of a 0.4per cent increase.

However, the fall in retail sales in January was revised yesterday from 1.3per cent to a much steeper 1.6per cent.

This drop followed strong monthly increases in sales in November and December. With sales having fallen in February last year, the annual rate of increase of retail sales volumes jumped from 1.2per cent to 2.1per cent last month.

Clothing sales bounced back to what National Statistics described as "normal" levels - having been weak in December and January.

The textiles, clothing and footwear category enjoyed a 3per cent rise in sales during February.

However, household goods sales fell by 1.1per cent during the month and the non-specialised category, which includes department stores, suffered a fall of 0.6per cent.

There was some overall solidity in both the food and non-food category, which managed respective rises in sales of 0.5per cent and 0.6per cent last month.

John Butler, UK economist at HSBC, said: "I think what was interesting was the downward revision to January's number, so it looks as if, in the first quarter, retail sales actually contracted. I think it adds a bit more reality to the consumer issue that, after a very strong end to last year, we are back with a bump and the consumer isn't necessarily past the worst."

UK retail sales volumes in the December-to-February period were up just 0.5per cent on the preceding three months. This was down sharply from a three month-on-three month growth rate of 1.3per cent to January.

However, Butler emphasised the retail sales numbers were far from dire.

He said: "I think the consumer has slowed. It is not a disaster. It is almost the Goldilocks analogy: it is not too hot, it is not too cold. I guess the question is which is going to be the most important: the rise in the housing market or the rise in unemployment? The deterioration in the labour market is going to keep a lid on consumer spending throughout this year."

Figures from National Statistics on Wednesday showed UK unemployment rose at its fastest monthly rate since 1992 - with the claimant-count jumping by 14,600 in February.

The MPC has held base rates at 4.5per cent since last August, when it cut them by a quarter-point in the first easing of monetary policy for more than two years.

External MPC member Stephen Nickell voted in isolation in December, January and February for a quarter-point cut, but his eight committee colleagues all preferred the status quo.

The vote at the end of the March 8 and 9 meeting will be revealed with the publication of the minutes next Wednesday, but there has been no sign that he will have won over any other committee members to his cause.

Butler believes interest rates will be on hold for some time but still sees a cut by the end of the year, and a fall eventually to 4per cent.

"I think we could get rates back down to 4per cent, " he said, but conceded: "There are constraints on the Bank of England. The fact the housing market is reaccelerating on the back of a very small rate cut back in August is making the likelihood of an imminent rate cut less and less."

Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics, said of yesterday's high street sales figures: "Even a robust monthly rise of 1per cent in March would leave sales falling by 0.3per cent in Q1 overall, following Q4's rise of 1.7per cent."

Retail sales account for about 40per cent of overall consumer spending.

In the fourth quarter, consumer spending grew by a surprisingly robust 0.7per cent.