Tories' summer of discontent

will be determined by movements of opinion within the Conservative

Parliamentary Party, the central and local organisations, the rank and

file and, to a degree, the public through the result of opinion polls.

A number of Tory MPs as well as political journalists confess

themselves baffled by John Major. In personal conversation he is usually

impressive. Those who have seen him negotiate praise his grasp and

determination. Yet on the public platform and, usually, in the Commons

he is a poor performer. His inability to make a convincing case for the

outcome of the European voting negotiations was a case in point.

Perhaps the ultimate test of a leader is the ability to recover from a

disaster or mistake. Mrs Thatcher, her back to the wall on Westland, did

it. Michael Heseltine, after a terrible decision to sanction mass pit

closures, conducted a bravura retreat that cheered his own side and

enraged the Opposition. Douglas Hurd showed the skills of a top class

dispatch box performer just the day before Mr Major, defending exactly

the same case.

This must be the year of decision for Mr Major. The Tories are

understandably nervous about the prospect of dumping a second leader

within four years. But those favouring a coup point out that the party

won the next election. Heavy losses in May's local elections and the

June Euro-election were always going to make Conservative MPs consider

Mr Major's position afresh. The events of the past fortnight make it

likelier that when they do they will turn their thumbs down.

A worrying factor of the Major administration has been the number of

times he has asserted something will not happen -- coming out of the ERM

for instance -- only to see it occur almost immediately.

It is nearly impossible to understand what possessed him to wrap

himself in the Union Jack and indicate he would fight on the beaches to

keep a blocking minority of 23 in the European Council of Ministers only

to accept a few days later a scantily disguised defeat which his best

adviser, Mr Hurd, had already told him was inevitable.

The misjudgment was all the more dire as one Tory Euro-sceptic had

told me earlier: ''We'll protest about the voting figures but there's

not much we can do about it.'' The Whips presumably had reported the

same attitude to the Prime Minister.

By raising the stakes Mr Major dangerously convinced a large centrist

group in his party that he was determined to make a fight of this issue.

They joined the more extreme Euro-sceptics in voicing their approval and

were equally dashed at the outcome. And they are the men and women who

will decide whether Major stays or goes.

If the Tories do better than expected -- and that would not have to be

well -- in the forthcoming elections the party may decide that keeping

him is less damaging than a leadership contest, but I doubt it.

Elections -- local, Euro, by-, are now conducted as a ballot box

opinion poll on the Government's performance to date. If the current

opinion polls are any guide the Conservatives are going to do very

badly.

The party Chairman, whoever he may be by July, and the Chief Whip, if

he is still Richard Ryder, both appointed by the leader, may hesitate

but the senior back bench and Conservative Union figures are likely to

make up their minds over the summer.

If they decide Mr Major should go it will be hard for him to resist,

although he is stubborn. For they should be able to tell him that their

soundings indicate that if he is challenged in the autumn more than 100

MPs will either vote against him or abstain. In those circumstances, his

position would be untenable.

Although other candidates might well stand, the succession seems

poised between Mr Clarke and Mr Heseltine. On the quite important

grounds that he has fewer enemies, Mr Clarke, though running second at

the moment, should probably be the favourite.

If I had the temerity to advise the Government party, however, I would

suggest they went for Mr Heseltine. He has political class, is now a

mature master of his trade, and has more substance than those distracted

or annoyed by his style always realise. Mr Clarke is a tough fighter but

he has yet to prove that he does not belong to the Kinnock class of

leader who creates uncertainty in voters and who might lose a General

Election with a speech or a phrase.

So Hezza for me to give the Tories their best chance of winning the

next election. But the party is badly in need of some deep thinking

about what exactly they want to win elections for; what, if they keep

the power to which they are addicted, they want to do with it. A

philosophical as well as a leadership shake-out is required.