IF housebuilder George Wimpey's forecasts are accurate, it would seem that 1998 may finally be the year when Scotland benefits from the well-publicised recovery in the UK's housing market.

While it has always been recognised that South-east England is the major driving force behind inflation in UK home prices, Scotland has been slower in following the lead set during the past year by London and the Home Counties.

As most Scottish sellers will know, the so-called ''ripple effect'' has not washed ashore north of the Border.

This is illustrated by the growth in housing prices during 1997. According to figures compiled by the Halifax, Scotland's housing market remained absolutely flat last year.

During the same 12 months, the UK as a whole saw a 6.3% increase in the value of all home sales.

Sales of new-build homes in Scotland were also static, while sales throughout the UK rose by 2.6%.

According to Wimpey, this uneven playing field is now due to be levelled. Chairman Joe Dwyer said that while overall price inflation may be lower this year, Scotland and other parts of the UK which did not benefit from last year's rebound are poised for a steady recovery.

''Overall, we expect to see between 3% and 4% price inflation in the new homes market, with the regional variation less marked and a calmer market in the South-east,'' Mr Dwyer said. ''This pattern of recovery should favour our structure, since our spread of activity is biased towards the north and Scotland.''

If this turns out to be the case, the shift will also benefit Scotland's homeowners. It would no doubt be a welcome development for those who have spent more than a year being teased by the southern mirage of upwardly-mobile house prices.