WHY is it everyone (or almost) seems to be assume we will leave the EU? The referendum was not binding, it was advisory. The Leave victory margin was small: 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent. That is a 3.8 per cent margin. Nigel Farage was reported in May as saying that if Remain won 52 per cent to 48 per cent, that would not be a convincing endorsement for Remain and he would demand a second referendum.

And we all know how the campaign was fought, with many people deciding to vote Leave because of factors in their lives unrelated to the EU– e.g. government failure to provide adequate help to communities with large numbers of migrants, inadequate funding for the NHS, etc. Their concerns need to be dealt with but should not affect our relationship with the EU.

There is another way of looking at the result: it as a draw, England and Wales 2, Northern Ireland and Scot- land 2. The Northern Ireland problem does not seem to be receiving much thought, but it is hugely important. Leave want to “control our borders” but in the Northern Ireland context this threatens the Good Friday Agreement which assumes both Eire and Britain being in the EU. Cross-border cooperation is very much part of it. The EU has provided consider- able funding to help the peace process and indeed has just granted €269m until 2020 in the context of its peace programme. Northern Ireland cannot just be brushed aside. Do we really want to see the break-up of the United Kingdom?

The discussion seems to be revolving around potential trade deals with the EU. No one should imagine the EU will be generous. They will want to punish the UK for leaving and to discourage others who may be tempted to consider leaving. Any trade deal is likely to involve our paying into the EU and accepting the free movement of labour. So why reject the status quo? The UK has an exceptional deal with the EU, with our budget rebate and exemption from Schengen, the Euro and “ever closer union”. We a have a voice in decision-making. We can benefit from the European Investment Bank, the European Social Fund, the European Regional Development Fund etc.

One thing is clear: the referendum was held without adequate information. The Government leaflet issued to all households should surely have contained a short explanation of the structure of the EU, the respective roles of the Commission, the Council and the European Parliament, plus the various agencies and some of the benefits we have received from them. Is it really too late to clarify that now and show the Leavers the advantages of remaining within the EU? Leaving would be shooting ourselves in the foot, or perhaps the head.

SYLVIA LYMBERY
St Clement’s, Oxford