IT WOULD be interesting to know how the three county councils – Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Northamptonshire – calculated the figure of 135,000 new jobs in the counties as you reported (Counties want a £9bn ‘new deal’ for growth).

The Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), on which Oxfordshire’s district councils based the need for new houses until 2031, forecasts “committed economic growth” generating 87,049 new jobs. There seems to be a conflict between this figure and the figure the counties are quoting. If Oxfordshire is going to generate 87,000 new jobs, then Buckinghamshire and Northamptonshire are expecting 48,000 between them. Some mistake, surely.

The SHMA has an alternative employment growth projection called Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP) which gives 45,068 new jobs in Oxfordshire until 2031. This seems to be more in line with the three county councils’ ambition of 135,000 new jobs, as Oxfordshire’s 45,000 amounts to a third of the total.

Translating this to housing need, the “committed economic growth” scenario requires 85,593 new homes in Oxfordshire between 2011 and 2031, while the SNPP estimate is 57,748.

Of course we need more homes, but of two or three bedrooms affordable to those on average salaries, not the four or five bedrooms that the property developers want to build. If the ambitious “committed economic growth” forecast of jobs doesn’t materialise, then no doubt the surplus houses will be snapped up by commuters to London, putting more strain on local road and rail infrastructure and school places.

And who is responsible for roads and schools? The county council, which appears to be working to an economic growth forecast of about half the one that the district councils are planning to build houses for. Some joined-up thinking is needed!

FRANK DUMBLETON
Main Street, Chilton