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Oxford East Constituency

Result: Labour retained

Andrew Smith (Lab) 21,938

Steve Goddard (Lib Dem) 17,357

Ed Argar (Con) 9,727

Sushila Dhall (Green) 1,238

Julia Gasper (UKIP) 1,202

David O'Sullivan (Socialist) 116

Roger Crawford (EPA) 73

Turnout: 64 per cent

2005: Labour (retained)

2005 majority: 963

2005 turnout: 58.7%

GENERAL Elections can be decided by a very small number of voters – and if you live in Oxford East you are one of them.

The 2010 election is set to be the closest for decades and the results of key marginal seats will determine overall power.

In Oxford East, Labour’s Andrew Smith defends a slim majority, with just 963 separating him from Liberal Democrat challenger Steve Goddard.

Until 2005, it had been a Labour stronghold where Mr Smith – a former cabinet minister – enjoyed a majority of more than 10,000.

But that was slashed, with the unpopular Iraq war cited as one of the factors.

Mr Smith lived to serve another term.

But both parties view the seat as a ‘must win’ in 2010 if they are to realise their national ambitions.

Recognising its importance they have wheeled in senior party figures to woo the electorate.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown talked up economic recovery on a visit to Cowley’s BMW factory while senior Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes raised the Iraq question again after a walkabout in Cowley Road.

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg visited yesterday, hoping to be a decisive factor in the final choice for the seat.

With the prospect of hung Parliament, the issue of tactical voting has also reared its head in Oxford East.

Labour Minister Lord Adonis urged Liberal Democrat supporters to back Labour ‘unless they want a Tory government’ when he visited the city earlier in the campaign.

But the Conservative, Green and UKIP candidates have been keen to dismiss the idea of a two-horse race.

Green candidate Sushila Dhall urged people to “vote for what they believe in”.

The Greens traditionally poll well in Oxford’s local authority elections and the party had hoped human rights campaigner Peter Tatchell would become Britain’s first Green MP.

He withdrew as a candidate for health reasons, saying they were caused by beatings suffered during his campaigning. He was replaced by Ms Dhall, a former city and county councillor.

The economy and public services are key issues on the national stage and in a constituency where hospitals, local authorities and BMW are major employers, they are set to be equally important in Oxford East.

The environment – both globally and locally – also remains a hot topic among residents.

Questions at lively and well attended hustings have reflected these along with local issues such as the future of Temple Cowley swimming pool.

But ultimately, geography rather than politics may play a part in the outcome of this swing seat.

The boundary that splits the city has shifted west and colleges in the centre of the city now fall within Oxford East.

With less than 1,000 votes in it, the student vote could yet be a deciding factor.

The Liberal Democrats are confident of securing it with a pledge to phase out tuition fees over a six-year period.

Mr Smith has said he believes those who benefit from education should share in the cost, including students and employers, but would oppose any increase in fees.

The only certainty in Oxford East is that it will be a vital seat on election night – but for which party?

Full candidate profiles